El Nino is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. Developing countries that depend on their own agriculture and fishing are usually most affected….
El Nino Effect
El Ninois the warm phase associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The cycle of warm and cold sea surface temperature of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean affects the weather including Monsoon.
IMD Alert
According to the India Meteorological Department There is a nearly 70% probability of an El Nino developing this monsoon,
IMD’s has issued a renewed assessment with El Nino probability projected to be a bit less, however the threat looms large and the alerts are issued to take appropriate actions to protect from the ill effects of El Nino
El Nino is strengthening concerns that the weather phenomenon could threaten agricultureIndia being the agrarian country the effect of El Nino effect are severe.
Agarian Economy
Monsoon is the lifeblood of the world’s fifth-largest economy. Nearly half of the country’s net-sown area lacks irrigation access, making the rain-bearing system vital.
With an El Nino almost certain to arise, the Govt is taking appropriate action to to prepare region-specific mitigation plans
Between 2001 and 2020, India saw seven El Nino years. Of these, four resulted in droughts. These years also saw Kharif or summer-sown farm output decline tremendously. Kharif harvests account for nearly half of the country’s annual food supply.
In 1997, India faced the strongest El Nino ever, but the monsoon was normal
The country is counting on another weather phenomenon, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole which is the temperature difference which tends to boost the rains and thwart an El Nino.
In 2009, when the country had its worst drought in three decades, the nation managed to produce a million more tonnes of food grains than it did in 2007, a normal monsoon year.
The country’s food output has risen sharply from about 50 million tonnes to 323.5 million tonnes during 2022-23, keeping pace with population growth.
Effect
El Nino is the weather pattern triggered by a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causes climate chaos across the globe and, often, drought in India.
Due to monsoon-disrupting weather pattern
The specific advisory is issued to India’s 700-odd districts based on different rainfall scenarios.
The probability of El Nino is forecastedin the June, July, August the intensity may rises to 80% in July, August and September season.
Yet, a drought still drives up inflation, erodes farm incomes and hurts the overall economy.
Forecast
IMD’s forecast of a normal monsoon on the lowest of the lower side.
The US Met Department has announced increase in the El Nino effect
The 2023 El Nino is expected to develop following a triple dip La Nina event
La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is characterised by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
In any case El Nino is developing and better to be prepared to face it..
–Dr Siddhivinayak Barve
Editor, ScienceNow Digital
