Scientists have identified a promising pre-flare phenomenon that could provide an earlier warning of powerful solar eruptions. Known as the Hot Onset Precursor Event (HOPE), the phenomenon involves changes in plasma temperature and emission measures in the Sun’s atmosphere before a major flare begins.
Researchers have now combined observations of HOPE with machine learning to estimate both the strength and timing of solar flares. The study trained its model using observations of 180 flares and tested it on 46 independent events. In a one-week proof-of-concept demonstration, the system detected all four flares stronger than M5.0, providing an average warning of about 17.9 minutes before the NOAA R3 radio-blackout alert.
Solar flares can disrupt radio communications, satellites and other space-based technologies. Earlier warnings could therefore improve space-weather preparedness and help operators protect vulnerable systems. The researchers emphasize that the method requires further testing before operational use, but HOPE offers a new physical signal for advancing flare forecasting.
